{"id":3048,"date":"2025-02-20T05:11:08","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T05:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/how-close-is-bitcoin-to-a-bear-market-this-historical-level-may-contain-hints\/"},"modified":"2025-02-20T05:11:08","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T05:11:08","slug":"how-close-is-bitcoin-to-a-bear-market-this-historical-level-may-contain-hints","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/how-close-is-bitcoin-to-a-bear-market-this-historical-level-may-contain-hints\/","title":{"rendered":"How Close Is Bitcoin To A Bear Market? This Historical Level May Contain Hints"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here&#8217;s how far the asset&#8217;s price is currently from this line.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Major Cohorts Right Now<\/h2>\n<p>In a new <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1892083802496958777\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">post<\/a> on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed where the Realized Price currently stands for some of the important Bitcoin investor groups.<\/p>\n<p>The &#8220;Realized Price&#8221; here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor on the BTC network. When the spot price is above this metric, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of profit, while it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss.<\/p>\n<p>Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Young Ju, which shows the trend in its value for four Bitcoin cohorts:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV?format=jpg&amp;name=large\" alt=\"Bitcoin Realized Price\" width=\"1912\" height=\"1446\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin is above the Realized Price of all of these groups right now, so their members would all be sitting on some unrealized gains.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, the average cost basis of these cohorts has held some significance for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it&#8217;s apparent that the price has generally followed a bullish trajectory whenever it has been above the Realized Price of the New Whales (colored in orange).<\/p>\n<p>The New Whales, also called the Short-Term Holder Whales, refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC. The Realized Price currently stands at $89,300 for this cohort, which means BTC could be at risk of retesting it in the near future if the bearish trajectory continues.<\/p>\n<p>A potential dip under the level, though, wouldn&#8217;t immediately signal a shift towards a bear market; it would only imply a lack of momentum behind Bitcoin. The level that BTC may have to avoid falling under in order to avoid a bearish regime is the Miner Whales (green).<\/p>\n<p>The Miner Whales refer to the wallets\u00a0of\u00a0mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant founder has explained that BTC&#8217;s plunges under the mark during the last couple of cycles have all led to bear markets.<\/p>\n<p>At present, the Realized Price of the Miner Whales is situated at $58,000. From the current price, Bitcoin would have to go through a drawdown of almost 40% in order to approach a retest of this line. If the level will indeed once again act as a boundary for the bear market in this cycle, then BTC may be considered at a safe distance for now.<\/p>\n<p>While the asset tends to see breaks both above and below the cost basis of three of the cohorts over the course of a cycle, it has never broken under the Realized Price of the fourth group, the Old Whales or Long-Term Holder Whales.<\/p>\n<p>These whales, who have been resolutely holding Bitcoin since more than 155 days ago, have their average acquisition level at around $26,000 right now.<\/p>\n<h2>BTC Price<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin witnessed a plunge under the $94,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the coin has already found a rebound as its price is now back at $96,200.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/fqQtEDNP\/\" alt=\"Bitcoin Price Chart\" width=\"1486\" height=\"889\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here&#8217;s how far the asset&#8217;s price is currently from this line. Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Major Cohorts Right Now In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed where the Realized Price currently&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[65,1752,1753,111,575,73,71],"class_list":["post-3048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bear-market","tag-bitcoin-cost-basis","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-realized-price","tag-btc","tag-btcusdt"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3048\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3049"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}