{"id":4964,"date":"2025-05-31T04:11:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T04:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/bitcoin-will-soar-altcoins-wont-charles-edwards-explains-why\/"},"modified":"2025-05-31T04:11:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-31T04:11:08","slug":"bitcoin-will-soar-altcoins-wont-charles-edwards-explains-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/bitcoin-will-soar-altcoins-wont-charles-edwards-explains-why\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Will Soar, Altcoins Won\u2019t\u2014Charles Edwards Explains Why"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an interview with Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak, also known as @JuhyukB, Capriole Investments CEO Charles Edwards laid out<\/a> a striking divergence in the crypto asset markets: while Bitcoin could double this year, altcoins remain structurally impaired and far from any meaningful rotation.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Could Hit $200,000 This Year<\/h2>\n

Speaking from the perspective of a macro quant hedge fund operator, Edwards was unequivocally bullish on Bitcoin, stating, \u201cIf the data stays in the current trend we\u2019re in, I think $150\u2013200K is definitely possible this year.\u201d The founder of Capriole, a fund known for pioneering on-chain valuation models like Hash Ribbons, Energy Value, and the Macro Index, grounded this forecast in a web of interlocking technical, sentiment, and macroeconomic signals.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re printing new all-time highs on daily and weekly closes,\u201d Edwards noted. \u201cAs long as we stay above $104K […] as long as the Macro Index trends up, and US liquidity continues to rise, this environment is very bullish.\u201d<\/p>\n

Capriole\u2019s proprietary Macro Index\u2014a machine learning model aggregating over 100 inputs from Fed liquidity to bond and equity markets\u2014has turned decisively positive. Bitcoin’s rally, Edwards emphasized, is further reinforced by metrics like MVRV Z-Score, Hodler Growth Rates, and Energy Value, all signaling room for expansion.<\/p>\n

But while Bitcoin shows strength across multiple dimensions, altcoins are telling a very different story.<\/p>\n

The Death Of The Old Altcoin Cycle<\/h2>\n

Edwards refrained from naming specific altcoins but delivered a clear macro verdict: the capital flow dynamics have changed, and altcoins are no longer on an equal footing with Bitcoin. \u201cStructurally, things are quite a bit different this cycle […] the biggest driving forces are Bitcoin ETFs and US policy. That\u2019s creating a centralizing effect\u2014funneling capital directly into Bitcoin,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

He pointed to the historical cycles of retail-led altcoin rallies, followed by catastrophic drawdowns\u2014often exceeding 99% losses. \u201cRetail has just gotten destroyed,\u201d he said bluntly. \u201cThere\u2019s a fatigue in the altcoin space that wasn\u2019t there four or five years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

The legacy of failed ICOs, broken tokenomics, and events like the FTX collapse have left lasting scars. Meanwhile, institutions are avoiding the risks and complexity of smaller-cap digital assets, opting instead for regulated Bitcoin exposure through ETFs and corporate treasury allocations. \u201cIt used to be more of a level playing field. That\u2019s no longer the case,\u201d Edwards said. \u201cThe real money is flowing into Bitcoin\u2014and that probably continues for a while.\u201d<\/p>\n

When Will Altcoins Wake Up?<\/p>\n

Despite the grim tone, Edwards does not dismiss altcoins entirely. He views a strong altcoin cycle as conditional\u2014not impossible, but dependent on clear Bitcoin dominance first.<\/p>\n

Using Capriole\u2019s Speculation Index and Crypto Breadth models, which track the relative strength and price movement of altcoins, he made a key observation: \u201cRight now, only 5% of altcoins are above their 200-day moving average. That\u2019s not bullish.\u201d<\/p>\n

He compared the current setup to late 2020, when Bitcoin surged from $10K to $60K before altcoins began outperforming. That rotation required Bitcoin to first breach previous all-time highs decisively. \u201cYou want Bitcoin to hit something like $140K while alts are still underperforming. That would be the ideal setup […] that\u2019s when capital begins rotating downstream,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

Conversely, if altcoins begin pumping prematurely, while Bitcoin remains range bound, Edwards sees that as a top signal. \u201cThat\u2019s usually the last puff of air,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n

Cycles Are Changing, Risks Are Evolving<\/p>\n

Beyond price action, Edwards questioned the relevance of traditional halving cycles. He argued that the impact of miners\u2014once the primary driver of Bitcoin supply dynamics\u2014has diminished significantly due to ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign actors like Michael Saylor. \u201cThat four-year cycle is dead\u2014or at least dramatically weaker. Miners are now just 2\u20133% of the total supply flow. The real drivers today are institutions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

This evolution reduces the probability of 80% drawdowns and increases the risk of systemic leverage\u2014particularly from publicly traded Bitcoin-heavy firms. While not an immediate concern, Edwards sees potential for long-term vulnerabilities if major players overextend.<\/p>\n

Edwards also discussed diversification within Capriole\u2019s portfolio. While Bitcoin remains the firm\u2019s core allocation, he revealed exposure to quantum computing equities like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave (QBTS), and QUBT. \u201cI think quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It\u2019s early, it\u2019s volatile, but the long-term CAGR could be even higher than Bitcoin\u2019s.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added that gold also plays a strategic role, not as a replacement but as a hedge. Capriole monitors the gold-to-equity ratio closely, and its breakout above the 200-day moving average is seen as a historically bullish signal\u2014both for gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

In closing, Edwards urged investors to tune out most of the financial news cycle. \u201cProbably 99% of headlines don\u2019t matter,\u201d he said. Instead, focus on game-changing shifts: Fed pivots, global liquidity expansions, and true structural reconfigurations of capital flow. \u201cWe\u2019re wired to overreact to bad news. The key is to filter it down to a few macro drivers that actually move the market\u2014and Bitcoin right now has those working in its favor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Until altcoins show meaningful breadth and break their long-term resistance structures, Edwards’ message is clear: Bitcoin will soar. Altcoins won\u2019t\u2014at least, not yet.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $105,557.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In an interview with Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak, also known as @JuhyukB, Capriole Investments CEO Charles Edwards laid out a striking divergence in the crypto asset markets: while Bitcoin could double this year, altcoins remain structurally impaired and far from any meaningful rotation. Bitcoin Could Hit $200,000 This Year Speaking from the perspective of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4965,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[220,1009,98,65,111,108,73,112,113],"class_list":["post-4964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-altcoin","tag-altcoin-season","tag-altcoins","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4964"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4964\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}