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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Macro analyst Alex Kr\u00fcger says the weekend\u2019s sell-off has likely marked a tradable low for the crypto market, arguing that the move closely mirrors the 2024 \u201cAugust crash\u201d that bottomed on a Monday. \u201cI see the current move as a smaller scale replay of last year\u2019s August crash (which bottomed on Monday),\u201d Kr\u00fcger wrote on late-Friday in a post on X, adding that he would \u201cbe looking to add to longs on Monday, ideally before the US cash open,\u201d if the overnight session remained panicky. He framed the decline as a classic shakeout rather than the start of a new downtrend.<\/p>\n
Kr\u00fcger\u2019s read hinges on macro first, crypto second. He notes that 2024\u2019s August break came in a sequence\u2014BoJ tightening, a hawkish FOMC, then weak payrolls\u2014and he sees the present sequence as \u201csimilar.\u201d There was no carry-trade impulse this time, he said, but markets digested a modestly hawkish Fed, mixed Big Tech earnings, a hotter-than-expected PCE inflation print, and finally a \u201chorrid\u201d US payrolls report\u2014after which risk assets slid in tandem and crypto tracked equities lower. The latest PCE data, released July 31, showed headline inflation accelerating to 2.6% year over year and core PCE at 2.8%, a notch above forecasts\u2014what Kr\u00fcger summarized as \u201cslightly hot.\u201d<\/p>\n
Earnings tape-bombs reinforced the risk-off mood. Microsoft and Meta beat estimates and initially rallied, while Apple\u2019s reception was cooler and Amazon\u2019s results were \u201cvery poorly received,\u201d with AMZN sliding about 7\u20138% as investors questioned AWS\u2019s momentum. Coinbase\u2019s report landed at the other extreme for crypto beta: revenue missed expectations and the stock fell, a backdrop Kr\u00fcger called \u201cdreadful\u201d for sentiment. \u201cEven though the aforementioned concerns emboldened bears, this week\u2019s move has been mainly a macro story, given how crypto traded mostly in line with equity indices,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
He also flagged an unusual political and geopolitical coda to this weekend\u2019s rout. After the weak jobs report\u2014plus an unusually stark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs\u2014markets lurched, and the White House\u2019s subsequent decision to reposition two US nuclear submarines amid heated exchanges with Moscow added to stress, he said. Kremlin officials later tried to downplay escalation risk, calling the submarine moves \u201croutine.\u201d Kr\u00fcger called the nuclear rhetoric and presidential barbs at the Fed \u201cnoise\u201d for markets, but said the combination likely helped flush leveraged positions into the close.<\/p>\n
On crypto-specific drivers, Kr\u00fcger listed a cluster of narratives that, in his view, amplified bearish conviction without changing the macro center of gravity: disappointing Coinbase results; debate around whether MicroStrategy could curtail its at-the-market equity issuance, limiting incremental BTC buys; questions about the sustainability of \u201cDATs\u201d (digital-asset treasury companies) tied to ETH; and, on the other side of the ledger, the SEC\u2019s new \u201cProject Crypto,\u201d a policy push to modernize securities rules and move more market infrastructure on-chain\u2014\u201can extremely bullish development that should drive inflows later in the year,\u201d as he put it. The SEC\u2019s chair outlined \u201cAmerican Leadership in the Digital Finance Revolution\u201d last week, framing tokenization and on-chain market plumbing as a regulatory priority.<\/p>\n
Kr\u00fcger\u2019s base case is timing-driven: either crypto \u201cbottomed after today\u2019s close, given the sheer violence of that final dump, or will be bottoming together with equities on Monday.\u201d In his plan, the trigger to add risk was early Monday\u2014assuming the overnight remained disorderly\u2014on the view that the analog to August 2024 would rhyme at the turn of the week. \u201cA violent shakeout,\u201d he wrote, not a regime change. He remains constructive into the fourth quarter, citing three pillars: a still-solid US economy, the start of Fed rate cuts, and a steadily improving regulatory climate that should broaden institutional and retail participation.<\/p>\n
Policy churn could amplify that path. Kr\u00fcger pointed to Fed Governor Adriana Kugler\u2019s resignation\u2014effective this month\u2014as a potentially market-relevant shift because it hands the White House an earlier-than-expected Board vacancy, and to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh\u2019s call for a new \u201cTreasury\u2013Fed accord\u201d as a signpost for constraints on central-bank independence. On Monday he added, \u201cThis will prove to be very important later on,\u201d citing Warsh\u2019s argument about \u201climits on the Fed\u2019s independence to help the govt with its finances.\u201d Whether those institutional dynamics translate into earlier or deeper rate cuts remains open, but markets have already moved to price odds to 85% for a September cut following the payrolls miss.<\/p>\n
Kr\u00fcger\u2019s longer arc is unabashedly bullish but explicitly conditional on the macro. \u201cI remain bullish on crypto into Q4,\u201d he wrote, while warning that ETH-linked treasury plays could \u201close momentum dramatically\u201d later in the year if goods inflation re-accelerates as corporates pass tariffs through. He set a one-year Bitcoin target for mid-2026 at $200,000\u2013$250,000\u2014\u201cextreme, but possible\u201d\u2014on the premise that a more dovish Fed in 2026 would coincide with ongoing adoption. For now, he is treating last week\u2019s cascade as an echo of 2024\u2019s Monday bottom. As he put it: \u201cNow let\u2019s see how this ages.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC recovered to $<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Macro analyst Alex Kr\u00fcger says the weekend\u2019s sell-off has likely marked a tradable low for the crypto market, arguing that the move closely mirrors the 2024 \u201cAugust crash\u201d that bottomed on a Monday. \u201cI see the current move as a smaller scale replay of last year\u2019s August crash (which bottomed on Monday),\u201d Kr\u00fcger wrote on…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6220,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[65,19,2095,115,579,254,72,1089,3075],"class_list":["post-6219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market-news","tag-crypto-news","tag-crypto-prices","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-cryptocurrency-news","tag-has-the-crypto-market-bottomed"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6219"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6219\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}