{"id":6277,"date":"2025-08-08T04:11:09","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T04:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/bitcoin-faces-a-black-swan-bitwise-sounds-the-alarm\/"},"modified":"2025-08-08T04:11:09","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T04:11:09","slug":"bitcoin-faces-a-black-swan-bitwise-sounds-the-alarm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/bitcoin-faces-a-black-swan-bitwise-sounds-the-alarm\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Faces A Black Swan \u2014 Bitwise Sounds The Alarm"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Friday\u2019s US July Employment Situation release has delivered the kind of statistical jolt that rarely shows up outside crises, forcing traders to re-evaluate both the macro outlook and Bitcoin\u2019s near-term path. Payrolls grew by just 73,000, but the shock lay in the record-large negative revisions: May and June were marked down by a combined 258,000 jobs, slicing the three-month hiring average to 35,000 and erasing nearly all of the second-quarter\u2019s reported momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that revisions of that magnitude have been seen only during the Covid collapse.<\/p>\n

Is Bitcoin Really Facing A Black Swan Event?<\/h2>\n

Bloomberg Economics chief US economist Anna Wong wrote<\/a>: \u201cThe downward revisions to May and June payrolls in the July jobs report constitute a black swan event \u2013 a three-standard-deviation move with less than a 0.2% chance of occurrence in the last 30 years. Adjusted for our estimate of the job overstatement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 birth-death model, the three-month hiring pace turns outright negative.\u201d The data, she wrote in a terminal note circulated Friday, \u201cflipped the labor-market script\u201d from re-acceleration to abrupt cooling.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Another Crash To Fill This Imbalance Before Rally To $120,000<\/p>\n

The market\u2019s crypto voice on the issue has been Bitwise Europe\u2019s head of research, Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, who spent the morning posting a string of warnings on X. First came the news, \u201dAccording to Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong, the most recent payroll revisions were a \u2018black swan event\u2019.Will probably get even worse before it gets better\u2026\u201d, then the maxim, \u201cYes \u2013 bad for payrolls = good for bitcoin, at least over the medium to long term.\u201d<\/p>\n

Minutes later he argued that deeper revisions could force emergency easing: \u201cNOTE: There is a strong case for a negative June jobs print after further downside revisions which could lead to a 50 bps rate cut in September\u2026 Plan accordingly. #Bitcoin\u201d<\/p>\n

By mid-afternoon he pushed the point to its logical extreme: \u201cATTENTION: We are probably just a single negative NFP print away from a significant repricing in Fed rate cut expectations. US labor market & inflation data surprises are still as bad as during Covid but traders only price in 2 cuts until Dec 2025\u2026 Printer is coming\u2026 \u201d<\/p>\n

Interest-rate futures moved sharply in Dragosch\u2019s direction. On Wednesdays, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 91 percent probability of at least one cut at the 17\u201318 September FOMC meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged that \u201cthe real underlying economy is slowing,\u201d while Governor Lisa Cook called the size of the revisions \u201cconcerning.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s price action captured the tug-of-war between recession fear and liquidity hope. The flagship cryptocurrency slumped to $111,920 on 2 August, its lowest print since early July, immediately after the payroll release and President Donald Trump\u2019s subsequent firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. A tentative rebound toward $111,500 followed as rate-cut odds ballooned this week. Yet, Bitcoin remained tethered to macro headlines rather than its own cycle.<\/p>\n

Still, the first clear sign of positioning for easier policy has emerged in fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net $91.6 million inflow on 7 August, snapping a four-day outflow streak that had drained more than $380 million from the vehicles.<\/p>\n

Whether Bloomberg\u2019s and Dragosch\u2019s black-swan framing proves prescient will depend on the next few data prints and the Fed\u2019s tolerance for risk. For now the market is caught between those poles: one bad jobs number away from a full-blown policy response, but one more shock away from a broader risk-off spiral. The only certainty, as Wong\u2019s probability math and Dragosch\u2019s full-throated alerts both imply, is that the margin for error has evaporated.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $116,359.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last Friday\u2019s US July Employment Situation release has delivered the kind of statistical jolt that rarely shows up outside crises, forcing traders to re-evaluate both the macro outlook and Bitcoin\u2019s near-term path. Payrolls grew by just 73,000, but the shock lay in the record-large negative revisions: May and June were marked down by a combined…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6278,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[3104,65,111,108,275,1913,73,112,113],"class_list":["post-6277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-andre-dragosch","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitwise","tag-black-swan","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6277"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6277\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}