The findings highlight that while profit-taking has begun, current selling levels remain below historical extremes seen in past bull market peaks.<\/p>\n
Tracking Long-Term Holder Signals<\/h2>\n
According to PelinayPA, the LTH analysis uses several indicators to measure the relationship between Bitcoin\u2019s price and the cost basis of long-term holders.<\/p>\n
Profit and loss bands, ranging from 150% to 1,000% above cost basis, help determine when Bitcoin enters zones historically associated with a higher risk of market tops. When BTC approaches the +500% band, it has often coincided with heightened selling activity and eventual cycle peaks.<\/p>\n
The analysis also incorporates a Spending Binary Indicator, which reflects the intensity of LTH selling, alongside \u201cHigh Spending\u201d signals that typically emerge near market tops and \u201cBottom Alerts\u201d that occur during deep corrections.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.cryptoquant.com\/363886\/quicktake\/Qk6hQC1Dh_90af918caa581aa6c62c8fd082f616c5db47a687b096b7eb082fc11f96c5dc24.png?resize=1280%2C720&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n
Reviewing past cycles, PelinayPA pointed to 2017 and 2021, where bear market downturns followed heavy long-term holder selling, while the 2022\u20132023 bottom was marked by multiple loss realization alerts around the $15,000\u2013$20,000 range.<\/p>\n
Currently, Bitcoin sits within the 150%\u2013350% profit band, leaving potential room for further growth, though the risk of a market top rises as the asset approaches the higher bands. The analyst noted that while green profit-taking bars are visible today, they remain well below the levels observed in earlier cycle peaks.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Short, Mid, and Long Term<\/h2>\n
In outlining the potential scenarios, PelinayPA suggested that Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the short term, as controlled profit-taking by long-term holders limits upside momentum.<\/p>\n
However, if accumulation and broader demand continue, the price could advance into the $124,000\u2013$178,000 range, corresponding to the higher profit thresholds on the LTH model.<\/p>\n
For the mid-term outlook, extending into late 2025, the analyst cautioned that if long-term holder selling intensifies like in 2021, Bitcoin could be nearing a cycle top. In such a scenario, the asset might peak above $150,000 before the next major correction.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead to 2026, the absence of new bottom alerts suggests that the market is still within the later stages of the ongoing bull cycle, rather than transitioning into a confirmed bear market.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin (BTC) has once again slipped under the $120,000 price mark, retracing after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. As of the latest market data, BTC is trading around $115,557, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and nearly 7% below its peak. This price movement suggests that the asset is currently…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[65,247,111,306,73,71,263],"class_list":["post-6503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-market","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price-analysis","tag-btc","tag-btcusdt","tag-cryptoquant"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6503\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}