![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/G04zuySWwAAFI14.png?resize=1024%2C491\")
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Into the event, his directional bias remains conditional rather than dogmatic. On the long side, he favors a liquidity sweep early in the week: \u201cOn the long side you want to see a sharp flush lower\u2026 into $113.5k, where you could layer bids with invalidation on a daily close below $112k,\u201d aiming for a reaction back to $117.5k (TP1) and $119k (TP2) into the FOMC.<\/p>\n
Conversely, if BTC grinds higher without that flush, his short plan is to \u201cshort above $119k pre-FOMC,\u201d then \u201cadd\u2026 on acceptance back below $117.5k post-FOMC,\u201d with $112k as the first target and scope to trail for lower lows if structure weakens. The trader concedes the next couple of weeks are \u201ca lot more unclear\u2026 with many variables,\u201d but his base case still envisions \u201cthe second half of Q4 will be very strong.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/G04z3C3XoAApyYn.png?resize=1024%2C491\")
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The setup lands as BTC churns around $115k ahead of the decision\u2014a zone multiple analysts have framed as pivotal. Heading into the weekly close, market commentary stressed that a sustained reclaim of ~$114k is a prerequisite for renewed momentum, with one widely tracked technician arguing, \u201cThe goal isn\u2019t for Bitcoin to break $117k\u2026 The goal is for Bitcoin to reclaim $114k into support first.\u201d Over the weekend and into Tuesday, BTC\u2019s price action remained pinned in that band, keeping both the upside break toward $119k\u2013$123k and the downside sweep into $113.5k\u2013$112k on the table.<\/p>\n
Macro context heightens the stakes. Markets broadly expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25 bps on September 17, shifting the target range from 4.50% to 4.25%\u2014a baseline Nik explicitly builds into his calendar.<\/p>\n
Yet traders are equally focused on Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s guidance and the updated \u201cdot plot,\u201d which will shape the path for additional cuts into year-end. While a cut is priced, the tone\u2014whether the Fed signals a shallow or accelerated easing path\u2014could be the catalyst that resolves BTC\u2019s tight $114k\u2013$119k coil.<\/p>\n
Positioning provides further texture to Nik\u2019s plan. He flags three-month annualized basis and the split between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest, along with concentrated one-week and one-month liquidation pockets just below spot and above the recent range highs\u2014context for why he prefers either reactive longs on a downside flush or fades into strength near $119k\u2013$120k if derivatives chase the move. The framework leans heavily on acceptance\/rejection around well-defined levels rather than attempting to front-run the policy outcome itself.<\/p>\n
Bottom line: in the Ostium playbook, bulls want a controlled dip that holds $112k on a daily closing basis and then forces a reclaim of $117.5k on the way to $119k\u2013$123k; bears get their best shot if price runs late into $119k\u2013$120k pre-FOMC and then loses $117.5k on the reaction. With BTC glued to the mid-$110ks and the market already bracing for a quarter-point cut, the catalyst may come down to Powell\u2019s nuance.<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $115,427.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/BTCUSDT_2025-09-16_14-44-44.png?resize=1024%2C471\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
With the Federal Reserve set to announce policy on Wednesday, September 17, a closely followed trader has laid out a precise, level-by-level playbook for navigating Bitcoin\u2019s next move. In his weekly \u201cMarket Outlook #51,\u201d published on September 15, Nik Patel (@cointradernik) for Ostium Research maps out both long and short triggers around a tight cluster…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7051,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[65,111,108,73,112,113,1413,1492],"class_list":["post-7050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-fed","tag-fomc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7050\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}