{"id":7771,"date":"2025-10-24T04:11:09","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T04:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/is-the-crypto-bull-run-over-lekker-capital-cio-warns-dont-miss-the-forest\/"},"modified":"2025-10-24T04:11:09","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T04:11:09","slug":"is-the-crypto-bull-run-over-lekker-capital-cio-warns-dont-miss-the-forest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/is-the-crypto-bull-run-over-lekker-capital-cio-warns-dont-miss-the-forest\/","title":{"rendered":"Is The Crypto Bull Run Over? Lekker Capital CIO Warns \u2018Don\u2019t Miss The Forest\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson says the market just lived through a rare \u201cpositioning rinse\u201d that has left crypto consensus facing the wrong direction at precisely the wrong time. \u201cThere\u2019s about 1, at most 2, times per year where I feel like I\u2019m seeing things at 180 degree odds with the crypto twitter consensus,\u201d Thompson wrote on October 20, pointing to prior episodes in September 2023, September 2024, and February 2025 as similar inflection points for sentiment. \u201cI am using the below 3 tweets to summarize consensus,\u201d he added, linking to contemporaneous bearish posts from @qwqiao, @blknoiz06, and @cburniske<\/a> to frame the prevailing mood.<\/p>\n

Why The Crypto Bull Run Highly Likely Isn’t Over<\/h2>\n

Thompson\u2019s October 10 open-interest flush was not a reason to turn medium-term bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, but a capitulation that typically precedes strong forward returns. \u201cCurrent setup for BTC and ETH is rare \u2013 largest positioning rinse in history of crypto while standing on doorstep of macro goldilocks. 10\/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than entire Jan\u2013Apr \u201925 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory \u201924,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The message is not a victory lap, he emphasized: \u201cIt\u2019s silly to even have to say this but the referenced tweets are not about being wrong or right \u2013 simply references to sentiment\u2026 Sometimes it\u2019s better to observe more, love more and say less.\u201d<\/p>\n

The positioning argument rests on a simple historical heuristic: selling \u201cafter\u201d a deep deleveraging event is usually a poor trade once forced sellers have been flushed. \u201cAnyone want to run the math on what percentage of -30\u201340% open interest crypto liquidation events was it a good idea to get bearish AFTER it happened?\u201d Thompson asked<\/p>\n

He made his hypothesis explicit: \u201cGetting medium time frame bearish, e.g. 40\/80\/120 days forward, after a large scale liquidation event is a poor risk\/reward the vast majority of the time, especially if it is of the magnitude of the 10\/10 event.\u201d Market veteran Alex Kr\u00fcger and Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer each replied \u201c0%,\u201d a succinct endorsement of that probabilistic view.<\/p>\n

Beyond positioning, Thompson ties the crypto setup to a macro backdrop he repeatedly characterizes as \u201cgoldilocks.\u201d In late summer, he and Felix Jauvin discussed gold\u2019s bull case on Forward Guidance; that thesis, Thompson says, crystallized when a widely circulated image showed Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi clasping hands at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen this picture leaked it was nail in the coffin and the most obvious buy gold signal you could get after its 4\u20135 month consolidation,\u201d he wrote, arguing that Bitcoin now sits in an analogous posture after a ~10-month consolidation.<\/p>\n

\u201cBasically getting the same thing now\u2026 Don\u2019t miss the forest for the trees,\u201d pointing to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong\u2019s policy-push post. \u201cHeading to D.C. tomorrow, excited to roll up our sleeves with key decision makers to get market structure to @POTUS\u2019s desk\u201d\u2014as part of a constructive structural backdrop for US market plumbing.<\/p>\n

\n

If you watch @ForwardGuidance<\/a>, you will recall @fejau_inc<\/a> and my gold rants back in late summer. When this picture leaked it was nail in the coffin and the most obvious buy gold signal you could get after its 4-5 month consolidation.<\/p>\n

Basically getting the same thing now after a\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/ry29kkKocz<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) October 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $109,101.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson says the market just lived through a rare \u201cpositioning rinse\u201d that has left crypto consensus facing the wrong direction at precisely the wrong time. \u201cThere\u2019s about 1, at most 2, times per year where I feel like I\u2019m seeing things at 180 degree odds with the crypto twitter consensus,\u201d Thompson…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7772,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[65,73,19,433,2095,115,72,3812,3813],"class_list":["post-7771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-bull-run","tag-crypto-market-news","tag-crypto-news","tag-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-is-the-crypto-bull-run-over","tag-quinn-thompson"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7771","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7771"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7771\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}