Ratio<\/a> as a critical lens for understanding the current market phase. This metric compares the profitability of coins being spent by long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH), offering insight into who is absorbing losses and who is still distributing coins at a profit. High readings indicate that long-term holders are realizing profits far more efficiently than short-term participants, while lower values imply growing loss realization among newer entrants.<\/p>\n![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/axeladlerjr.com\/content\/images\/2026\/02\/Bitcoin-LTH_STH-SOPR-Ratio.png?resize=2000%2C1125&ssl=1\")
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Since peaking near 1.85 in October, the LTH\/STH SOPR Ratio has fallen to around 1.13, representing a decline of roughly 40%. This sharp compression reflects a clear deterioration in profitability across the market. However, the indicator remains above the critical 1.0 threshold. Historically, sustained moves below 1.0 have marked periods where short-term holders capitulate en masse, selling at significant losses. Deeper drops into the 0.6\u20130.8 range coincided with full capitulation and cycle lows in 2015, 2019, and 2023.<\/p>\n
At the current level, profit margins are tightening for both cohorts, but long-term holders are still, on average, exiting positions above cost. Adler notes that a decisive break below 1.0 would signal a transition into true capitulation, while a recovery toward 1.3\u20131.4 would indicate renewed confidence. Taken together with rising unrealised losses, the data points to a mid-cycle stress phase rather than a terminal bear-market bottom.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Stabilizes After Sharp Sell-Off<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin price action on the 12-hour chart reflects a market still under structural pressure. Despite a short-term stabilization attempt around the $78,000 zone. After an aggressive sell-off from the mid-$90,000s, BTC broke decisively below multiple key moving averages. This confirms a broader bearish regime rather than a simple pullback. The sharp downside impulse was accompanied by a notable spike in volume. Signaling forced selling and liquidation-driven flows rather than orderly profit-taking.<\/p>\n
![\"BTC](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/BTCUSDT_2026-02-03_07-16-01.png?w=860&resize=860%2C549\")
<\/p>\n
Since tagging the local low near $78,000, the price has attempted a modest rebound. However, this bounce remains technically weak. Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term and medium-term moving averages. Which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Previous support in the $88,000\u2013$90,000 region has clearly flipped into a supply zone. Capping upside attempts and reinforcing the idea of a range forming beneath a broken structure.<\/p>\n
The current consolidation appears more consistent with a relief pause than a trend reversal. Momentum has slowed, but there is no evidence yet of sustained bid absorption or higher-timeframe demand stepping in.<\/p>\n
As long as BTC remains below the descending moving averages, downside risks persist. The price is vulnerable to renewed tests of the recent lows. Reclaiming and holding above the $82,000\u2013$85,000 area would be required to signal a meaningful shift in short-term structure.<\/p>\n
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after several days of sustained selling pressure and heightened market uncertainty. Price action remains fragile, with each rebound attempt failing to attract strong follow-through, reinforcing concerns that the market is still digesting a broader structural shift rather than a short-term correction. According to top analyst Axel Adler,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9778,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[65,246,1410,111,108,1001,4594,73,71],"class_list":["post-9777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-bitcoin-capitulation","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-selling-pressure","tag-bitcoin-unrealized-loss","tag-btc","tag-btcusdt"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9777\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcotasks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/axeladlerjr.com\/content\/images\/2026\/02\/Bitcoin-Percent-Unrealised-Profit-and-Loss.png?resize=2000%2C1125&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n